Estonians Choose Pro-West Parties amid Russia Jitters

Estonia's governing pro-NATO Reform party was set Monday for tricky coalition talks after defeating a Kremlin-oriented rival in an election held amid jitters over the actions of neighboring Russia.

President Toomas Hendrik Ilves is expected to task Reform leader and outgoing Prime Minister Taavi Roivas with forming a government after the centrist party won 30 seats in the 101-member parliament in Sunday's vote.

But analysts warned of increased political volatility in the tiny Baltic EU member state, with the number of parties in parliament increased to six from four.

The fresh-faced 35-year-old Roivas has ruled out teaming up with the opposition pro-Russian Center party, which won 27 seats, looking instead to current junior coalition partners the Social Democrats.

Social Democrat chief Sven Mikser, whose party won 15 seats, told public broadcaster ERR he was open to renewing the alliance with Reform and possibly including the conservative IRL.

Combined, the three parties could command a 59-seat majority, although the IRL was the biggest loser on Sunday, with its number of seats dropping by nine to 14.

"They will have a hard time forming a simple and straightforward coalition," leading political commentator Ahto Lobjakas said.

"There is a lot of volatility now in the political system where there once was none," he added.

"Reform can reckon with either the Social Democrats or the IRL. They're in a position of strength."

Annika Uudelepp, an analyst with the Praxis independent think-tank, agreed.

"Yes, there is a chance, when you look at history they have formed a coalition before," she told AFP.

"There are still several options on the table thanks to the two newcomers," she added, referring to a free-market liberal party and an anti-immigration conservative party, which secured 15 seats between them.

Five of the six parties elected to parliament, including the two newcomers, are staunchly pro-Western.

"In terms of Estonia's pro-Western orientation, commitment to EU, NATO, all this will remain and possibly become more pronounced," Lobjakas told AFP, noting the entry of the two new parties in parliament as a swing to the right.

Centre party leader Edgar Savisaar's failure to condemn Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine caused serious misgivings among voters wary of their huge neighbor’s increased military presence in the region.

Centre is supported mainly by Estonia's ethnicRussian minority, which accounts for one quarter of the 1.3 million population.

Military maneuvers by Moscow on Estonia's border just days ahead of the vote further stoked deep concerns in Europe that the Kremlin could attempt to destabilize countries that were in its orbit during Soviet times.

NATO is countering the moves by boosting defenses on Europe's eastern flank with a spearhead force of 5,000 troops and command centers in six formerly communist members of the alliance, including one in Estonia.

"If they (the Russians) come in here, Estonia can't do anything... I'm not sure NATO will help us out," voter Pyotr Sirotkin, a 25-year-old student, told AFP.

But some voters were less concerned about the threat posed by Moscow than bread-and-butter issues.

Hot election topics included proposals to triple the monthly minimum wage to 1,000 euros ($1,130) and lower social security premiums among other measures.

"I believe there are much more important things than worrying about Russia," 18-year-old student Eve Tonisson told AFP as she voted in Viimsi, a town just north of the capital Tallinn.

"Many young people are moving abroad because of higher wages there... I personally don't think I'm going to stay in Estonia," she said, reflecting a troubling demographic trend in the tiny nation as Estonians leave to search for a better life.

Long a paragon of fiscal responsibility in the EU, which it joined in 2004, Estonia posted 1.8 percent economic growth in 2014, with 2.5 percent expansion expected this year. Joblessness hovered around seven percent last year.

Deep reforms and years of painful austerity paved the way to Estonia's 2011 eurozone entry.